The objective  is to identify limitations, inadequacies and shortcomings of the in-use reliability prediction methodologies for space applications. Tasks include:

• Identify the objectives per space stakeholders.
• Identify new stakes and challenges in space industry (constellation, de orbiting…).
• Perform an assessment of the current state of reliability predictions and their applications with regards to the specific goals in space system design & development.
• Define the criteria for the collection and utilization of reliability data from space missions (either predicted or observed).
• Identify and select (after ESA agreement) 3 reference missions from different domains (e.g. Telecom, Science, Earth Observation etc.) for the collection of predicted and observed reliability data from field.
• Collect the reliability data from the reference missions at the required level (refer to reference missions) according to the defined criteria.
• Benchmark predicted results with field reliability estimates and perform a gap analysis in order to identify limitations and shortcomings of the in-use reliability prediction methodologies.
• Identify and summarize the inadequacies, limitations of the in-use reliability prediction methodologies for space applications.

The objective includes definition of an approach to improve the in-use reliability prediction methodologies as a basis for the development of the new methodology. Tasks include:

• Identification and discussion of approaches to remove the limitations and inadequacies of the in-use reliability prediction methodologies.
• • Identify the models from commonly accepted, successful methodologies.
  • Define adaption or refinement of models for utilization in space applications.
  • Identify and list industry "best practices" when widely used & successful.
  • Identify the need for Development of new models and equations.
• Definition of priorities to guide the selection among different approaches. Define the approach aiming to remove the inadequacies.
• The approaches will be defined and discussed in relation to different areas / domains.

The objective is to define requirements specifications and ground rules for the development of the new reliability prediction methodology. Tasks include:

• Assess, define and specify the requirements related to the taxonomy for reliability prediction.
• Assess, define and specify the elements constituting the system/product and their classification.
• Assess, define and specify the different levels of modelling: part, equipment, system.
• Assess, define and specify the mission profile attributes of the elements (at every level).
• Assess, define and specify the causes of failures separately and with their interactions: design errors, manufacturing errors, use/operation error, environmental threat.
• Assess, define and specify the failures to be considered per element: sudden/degradation (wear-out, aging)
• Assess, define and specify the principles of reliability modelling per levels addressing the suitability of the approaches per nature of element (model-based, physics of failure, statistical approach.
• Assess, define and specify the types of models and their applicability: probabilistic model, deterministic model, combined model mixing both previous ones.
• Assess, define and specify the requirements to combine predicted reliability data with actual in-orbit (operational) and/or test experience data.
• Assess suitability of life testing methods for reliability estimation and identify the most appropriate.
• Assess, define and specify the statistical methods and tools supporting the reliability modelling with the process to use them.

The objective is to define the criteria and requirement for evaluating the new reliability prediction methodology. Tasks include:

• Define criteria for a qualitative assessment of the methodology.
• Define criteria and requirement for quantitative verification and validation of the methodology.
• Define metrics and acceptable criteria for comparison with achieved, in-flight reliability.

The objective is the development of a new reliability prediction methodology according to the requirements specifications and previously defined ground rules. Tasks include:

• Consolidation, adoption and adaptation of existing methodologies both in-use in the space industry and in other industries, including the methods reviewed and developed in previous studies, as well as industry “best practice”, as appropriate.
• Development of new methods applicable to several technologies to account for specific failure causes and aspects of reliability not covered by the current in-use methodologies.
• Development of new methods for specific technologies not covered by the in-use methodologies.
• (Preliminary) identification of remaining shortcomings, limitations and open areas in the new methodology.
• Formal intermediate review of the preliminary new reliability prediction methodology based on the procedure defined by ESA and provided as input.

The objective is an assessment of the new reliability prediction  methodology based on its application to actual space projects (Proof of concept), and a benchmarking with alternative, existing methodologies. The outcome will be used to update the developed reliability prediction methodology. Tasks include:

• Data collection for reliability assessments.
• Application of the Reliability prediction on actual projects using the current and new methodologies.
• In flight field experience collection and exploitation.
• Methodology benchmarking.

The objective is the preparation of a reliability prediction handbook for space applications describing the methodology for reliability prediction of space systems, which will serve as an input for the ECSS standard/handbook development process. Tasks include:

• Definition of the final handbook TOC (in close collaboration with ESA).
• Definition of the Document Requirement Description in close collaboration with ESA.
• Preparation of the handbook.